To characterize the risk represented by your exposed assets, you'll plot the probability that the hazard will occur against the magnitude of the potential loss it would incur.
Some groups complete their own assessment process. Others hire professional climate adaptation practitioners to help them conduct a Vulnerability & Risk assessments.
Looking over your list of exposed assets, you'll probably notice that some assets are more likely to be damaged than others. Another concept—vulnerability—can help determine which assets are most and least likely to be harmed. The assets that are likely to be negatively impacted by one or more climate-related hazards are vulnerable.
Clarifying our Vocabulary
Below are the descriptions we use for concepts related to vulnerability and risk. Discussing and referring back to these definitions can help groups communicate clearly as the develop a common understanding of the processes.
To determine if an asset is vulnerable, you'll first consider its sensitivity to the hazards it is exposed to. Is the hazard capable of damaging the asset?
Even if an asset is sensitive to a hazard, it is not necessarily vulnerable. Does the asset have adaptive capacity—a characteristic that helps it deal with or adjust to the hazard? For example, does the ground-floor furniture store have flood barriers installed at every door to the building?
Adaptive capacity—the ability to adjust to new situations—reduces the potential impact of a sensitive asset. For each asset-hazard pair, consider if the asset has some ability to avoid damage or adapt to an occurrence of the hazard.
These two homes in a flood-prone area are both exposed, yet the one on the right is obviously more likely to be damaged if a major flood occurs. Raising buildings above expected flood levels is one example of adaptive capacity, which reduces vulnerability.
Make a new list of you exposed assets and add three columns to the right. Label them Potential Impact, Adaptive Capacity, and Vulnerability.
To judge the vulnerability of each asset to the indicated hazard,
For assets with high or medium vulnerability, you'll also want to characterize the risk they represent. Risk is a compound concept that describes the chance of sustaining a substantial loss.
When referring to risk from weather and climate-related hazards, higher risk reflects either a higher chance of a hazard occurring or a higher cost (financial or otherwise) if the hazard occurs. To characterize risk, you'll rate these two parameters for each of your exposed assets.
For the hazards that could impact your most vulnerable assets:
Digital tools and data available through this site can help you find the answers to these questions. For instance, you can explore past and current conditions or check applied forecasts.
Based on what you find, estimate the probability a hazard will occur as low, medium, or high. Develop a simple rule set for the three categories to ensure that you apply probability consistently.
Example rule set for categorizing probability:
If a hazard is likely to occur within 5 years, designate it as a high probability. Categorize events that are likely to occur just once in 5 to 20 years as medium probability. Designate events that are likely to occur less frequently than once in 20 years as low probability.
Gather available information to help you estimate or illustrate the financial and social costs of the loss you would experience if the hazard occurs. To get started, explore the losses that resulted from recent hazards in other places or find out what it took for communities to recover from hazardous events that occurred a decade or more ago.
Again, develop a simple rule set to help you categorize the magnitude of a loss as low, medium, or high.
For every exposed asset, plot the probability of the hazard and the magnitude of the loss on a 3x3 matrix like the one shown on the right. Assets that plot in the High-High or High-Medium areas of the matrix represent your highest chances of sustaining a substantial loss.
Maps in the National Risk Index let users compare Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience for 18 natural hazards. Access the interactive online mapping application from FEMA to check your community's status. Learn more in the National Risk Index Primer.
Be aware that many communities choose to hire consultants, adaptation practitioners, or Architecture and Engineering (A&E) firms to assist them in compiling their vulnerability and risk assessments. Professionals who fill these roles still need plenty of input from the local champion and team, but they can help groups navigate unfamiliar concepts to document the most pressing potential climate problems in your community.
Communities often begin using qualitative methods for their assessment, categorizing vulnerability and risk as low, medium, or high. This approach is fairly quick and effective for identifying which assets represent your highest risk. When setting priorities for the most important parts of a complex system, groups often choose to do the extra work it takes to quantify vulnerability and risk.
To zero in on specific locations where resilience-building can benefit the entire community, many efforts access detailed spatial information and quantitative data on hazards and property values. To work in a real community, this quantitative information about physical assets needs to complemented by social awareness and a commitment to keep equity at the center of all decisions.
Quantitative geospatial information may be available as web-accessible map layers. Data available in this format make it relatively easy to calculate and display measures of vulnerability and risk across the community. Maps produced using these methods can display the severity of potential hazards and highlight locations where risk is high. Using a map-based quantitative approach also helps reduce uncertainty, making it easier for your team and decision makers to set priorities.
In general, groups address their highest risk first. However, if you recognize that damage to a specific asset (for example, a heavily used bridge or your telecommunications capacity) could initiate multiple failures across other sectors in your community, consider that asset as a top priority. Think about the things your community truly depends upon to function, and use that knowledge to set your priorities.
Can you accept the risk climate presents to your assets? If not—continue to Investigate Options »
Instructions on these pages encourage you to gather specific types of information. You may find it convenient to download this prepared spreadsheet and use it to record input as you move through the steps.
Access the Steps to Resilience Glossary for definitions and examples of words related to resilience.
