Arctic LCC Projections
Important Notice for Using Climate Projections
Climate projections can be useful for making decisions about the future, but the limitations of climate models make it easy to misinterpret or misuse their results. Be aware that:
- Climate projections are not predictions. Projections are based on assumptions about future human emissions of greenhouse gases and other policy choices.
- Climate projections do not attempt to predict the timing of meteorological events such as storms, droughts, or El Niños. The location and timing of future extreme weather events cannot be deduced from climate model projections.
- Projections vary from model to model: the best projection dataset for one location and purpose may not be the best for other situations. Considering a range of projections may help you gain a more complete picture of potential future risks.
- The increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled projections available for temperature and precipitation may not be available for all parameters. In addition, increased resolution does not necessarily equate to greater fidelity or reliability.
For decisions involving the use of climate model projections, you may want to consider seeking expertise.
This collection of products summarizes baseline and projected temperature and precipitation. The animations and maps are focused on the northern portion of Alaska, while the underlying raster data have a much larger spatial extent, covering Alaska and western Canada. The collection includes climate projection maps and rasters in GIF-format animations and PNG images that are suitable for presentations.
Baseline results for 1961–1990 are derived from Climate Research Unit TS 3.1 or TS 3.1.01 data downscaled to two-kilometer grids; results for the other time periods are based on a composite of projections from five Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CMIP5/AR5 General Circulation Models under representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, downscaled to two-kilometer grids.
Climate data are provided courtesy of the Scenarios Network for Alaska + Arctic Planning (SNAP) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks International Arctic Research Center.