U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit

Participants characterized "moderate" and "severe" versions for each of the three identified drivers of change and developed four alternative future scenarios. The severity of climate change was based on observed and projected trends, and the severity of a changing world order and local values and power structures were derived from literature-based theoretical arguments. Each scenario assumed population growth will continue at pace through 2050. The resulting combinations of these drivers depict two intermediate and two extreme futures. (Click image to expand view.)